ThisTime

Acknowledging first that foreign policy strategic actions are usually classified and that I am not an expert in the matter, I once again share my sincere concern about the possibility of failing to achieve the demise of the Cuban regime and the total dismantling of its communist structure.

The recent visit of CIA director John Ratcliffe to Havana and the indictment of the Cuban dictator Raúl Castro announced today, May 20th, seem like solid steps towards the success of a well-thought-out plan to liberate Cuba from the murderous thugs. However, underestimating the Cuban dictators’ ability to turn around events in their favor would be a terrible mistake.

Assuming President Trump has decided to see a total dismantling of the Cuban tyranny, there are still at least two major inflection points that could turn the US’s assumed plan to ashes. Younger generations of the Castros, led by Raúl Castro, are the regime’s real power. From that position of power, they benefit from, oversee, and control the billionaire GAESA conglomerate businesses. It may seem obvious that they won’t easily relinquish power. What might not be so obvious is the lengths they are willing to go to in order to retain such power and wealth.

After the official indictment of Raúl Castro, a possible way out before further decisive actions come from the US government would be to make the 94-year-old Raúl Castro a martyr. No Raúl Castro, no indictment, and the younger Castros remain in power and wealthy, with plenty of time to try to negotiate with the US. And if you think they wouldn’t go as far as to make Raúl a martyr, then you haven’t been paying attention to the last 67 years of Cuban history, in which case I recommend you do some research and only then come back to reading this opinion article. Therefore, inflection point number one: make Raúl Castro a martyr.

There is another possibility for the Castro dynasty to survive. The younger generations of the Castros could submit to the least-negotiable US demands, either deliver the old criminal or send him overseas, and negotiate their permanence in power, acting like Delcy Rodriguez in Venezuela. They would commit to control over the Cuban people to avoid a mass migration wave, which was undesirable to the US. They would also commit to removing China’s and Russia’s military assets from the island, and to implement radical political and economic reforms, satisfying the current US’s most critical demands. Therefore, we got an inflection point number two: younger generations of Castros negotiate their permanence in power.

Neither of these two possibilities is feasible nor desirable to the Cubans inside and outside the island, especially for the Cuban-Americans in the US, with a majority being Trump/Rubio supporters. After 67 years of misery and all kinds of suffering, the only outcome that could calm the cry for freedom of millions of Cubans is for every member of the Castro family and their Cuban Communist Party allies to be completely stripped of their power. No negotiation, no talking, just out. Talking and negotiating are perfect strategic delays that allow the regime to buy time for a solution in its favor. Making it seem like the younger generations of Castros are somehow different and willing to compromise, or even making Raúl Castro a martyr, are filibusters to regroup, rethink, and mutate into an impenetrable bunker of continuity.

My concerns don’t come from doubting the strategic capabilities of the current US government under President Trump. My concerns come from witnessing, and in older cases studying, the Cuban regime’s ability to mutate and survive to devastating world stages and what appeared to be insurmountable internal conditions in the past. Cuba is not Venezuela! The Cuban regime has a proven record of an intelligence and counterintelligence service that was able to infiltrate many Latin American countries, bringing down their previous democratic systems, such as Venezuela, and destabilizing the entire region. There is no one safe while they are in power, and the western hemisphere will always be in danger of communist and US enemies’ takeover while the regime exists. Assuming they will keep their word once they negotiate is as dangerous as it is naive. Cubans have had enough of the murderous regime and enough betrayal, even from previous US governments, to settle for less than witnessing the full extent and weight of justice falling on the tyrants.

There is also a bias factor in my concerns about this situation. It’s the first time I’ve seen the liberation of Cuba as a real possibility. The prospect of a free Cuba has been in my dreams, as in the dreams of many, for as long in the past as I can remember. I have dreamed for years of a Cuba with no political prisoners, with no repression, no hunger, no people eating off the trash, no lack of basic needs, a Cuba with multiple political parties, free elections, free speech, respect for human rights, reliable jobs, a steady supply of potable water, electricity, clean and supplied hospitals and schools, affordable homes…So yes, upon the imminence of the first step into liberation and towards achieving a dignified life for Cubans inside the island, I am afraid the murderous family who has kept them hostage for 67 years, can suddenly escape justice and keep their evil power.

Do not give the tyrants more time to plot. You have a case; act on it now. Do not accept any sort of negotiation from anyone linked to the Cuban Communist Party and the Castro family. Do not underestimate their willingness to go to any lengths to remain in power. Their only fate should be answering for their crimes against millions of people. Freeze all GAESA’s related accounts throughout the world, and when the time comes, use that same money they stole from the people to rebuild Cuba.

I pray that the US government, under the command of President Trump and the guidance of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, has accounted for the real danger to the Western Hemisphere posed by the Castros and their generals. I hope they have also considered the possible inflection points (the ones mentioned here and others) that could dramatically alter the outcome of their assumed mission to liberate Cuba. I also hope that this administration really understands that liberating Cuba and dismantling the communist regime is in the best interest of the US to establish new democratic allies in the western hemisphere and maintain its stability. Viva Cuba Libre! God Bless America!

Yara